Description

This analysis provides a forecast of FORTH prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2024-12-08 00:00:00+00:00 3.199480 3.451854 3.737577 4.090745 4.524339 5.052463 5.767938
2024-12-15 00:00:00+00:00 2.859472 3.175279 3.557876 4.072692 4.779498 5.778600 7.460327
2024-12-22 00:00:00+00:00 2.624258 2.958645 3.378913 3.972955 4.848282 6.224340 9.019304
2024-12-29 00:00:00+00:00 2.524993 2.890080 3.366427 4.076143 5.210389 7.254494 12.876746
2025-01-05 00:00:00+00:00 2.369770 2.730781 3.209881 3.941637 5.159450 7.525461 15.576495
2025-01-12 00:00:00+00:00 2.237077 2.589668 3.063048 3.798670 5.059093 7.652644 18.407315
2025-01-19 00:00:00+00:00 2.145793 2.497014 2.974903 3.732761 5.077862 8.057673 25.188677
2025-01-26 00:00:00+00:00 2.114249 2.482238 2.994573 3.836664 5.431763 9.541547 128.326964
2025-02-02 00:00:00+00:00 2.103613 2.494526 3.053240 4.011356 5.982360 12.361757 NaN
2025-02-09 00:00:00+00:00 2.056824 2.452255 3.025610 4.032717 6.209882 14.521013 NaN
2025-02-16 00:00:00+00:00 2.018124 2.418995 3.008633 4.070012 6.489543 17.896425 NaN
2025-02-23 00:00:00+00:00 1.938292 2.322409 2.886816 3.900953 6.203603 16.871927 NaN
2025-03-02 00:00:00+00:00 1.896583 2.282013 2.854830 3.904673 6.397472 20.719739 NaN
2025-03-09 00:00:00+00:00 1.853816 2.238209 2.814839 3.889278 6.541348 25.770176 NaN
2025-03-16 00:00:00+00:00 1.799689 2.175233 2.740274 3.798760 6.445226 27.458055 NaN
2025-03-23 00:00:00+00:00 1.784985 2.169873 2.758188 3.892346 6.938783 59.215958 NaN
2025-03-30 00:00:00+00:00 1.731634 2.104467 2.673940 3.770309 6.705110 54.350957 NaN
2025-04-06 00:00:00+00:00 1.679436 2.039417 2.588063 3.640107 6.427469 45.447749 NaN
2025-04-13 00:00:00+00:00 1.642775 1.996774 2.537704 3.579913 6.375213 53.191470 NaN
2025-04-20 00:00:00+00:00 1.636099 1.998977 2.561503 3.674758 6.881819 NaN NaN
2025-04-27 00:00:00+00:00 1.639639 2.016669 2.612146 3.833620 7.736916 NaN NaN
2025-05-04 00:00:00+00:00 1.620321 1.998340 2.599998 3.852994 8.049961 NaN NaN
2025-05-11 00:00:00+00:00 1.604138 1.984270 2.594436 3.886793 8.460547 NaN NaN